Is the JJG HODL Thesis Actually Survivor Bias Masquerading as Strategy?

[ggreen]

Honestly, looking at the data, it feels like we’re only hearing from the lucky few who caught the early cycle and ignoring the mountains of dead coins people held to zero. Is this actually a solid strategy or just survivor bias wrapped up in a fancy thesis? Curious if anyone else thinks blindly following this is dangerous for new money entering the game now.

 

[irena_as]

I think survivor bias definitely plays a role here, since we're only seeing the stories of people who were able to HODL through the hard times and are now touting it as the winning strategy. It'd be great to see some analysis of the people who got out when the price dropped, but instead we're just getting testimonials from the successful ones.

 

[63rd]

I think that's a fair point about survivor bias, but I'd argue that JJG's thesis also focuses on finding diamonds in the rough - projects that might not make it big but still have potential for steady gains. It's not just about riding the wave of hype, but about identifying undervalued gems that could provide a long-term advantage.

 

[Drincker]

I think it's possible that some of the proponents of the JJG HODL thesis, especially the ones who only look at the past successes, might be unknowingly victim to survivor bias, but I also think that it's a strategy that's been effective enough to be worth studying and emulating, even if it's not perfect.

 

[EugeneAbl]

I'm not sure what's more concerning, the fact that we're debating this or the fact that someone actually wrote a thesis on holding into a pump. Survivor bias is a real thing, and we all know a HODLer who got lucky, but that doesn't mean it's a viable investment strategy.

 

[999Сергей2012]

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[bravocharli]

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[Pyro]

I've been thinking about this a lot and I'm starting to believe that the JJG HODL thesis is indeed survivor bias, we only hear from the winners who held on and made a killing. The ones who lost their shirts are nowhere to be found, so it's tough to say if the strategy is actually effective or just a result of luck. Either way, it's a good reminder to take any success story with a grain of salt.

 

[flappyn]

Totally agree, the thesis works great if you ignore the thousands of alts that went to zero. We only see the winners posting portfolios while the bagholders who got rekt just ghost the forums.

 

[Vinodel]

I think this thread is spot on - HODL is often romanticized as a strategy when in reality it's just a testament to survivor bias. We're more likely to hear about the guys who got in early and rode the wave to the moon, but not the ones who got in late and got burned. The real question is, what happens when the "HODLers" can't hold?

 

[nokk]

Bro, survivor bias is real with the shitcoins but acting

 

[Trustee]

For sure, it’s classic survivor bias. You don’t see the bagholders holding dead altcoins to zero posting their "strategies" anywhere.

 

[denmax]

You can call it survivor bias all you want, but JJG’s FA has been spot on for cycles now. Paper hands always find a reason to sell, while the rest of us just keep stacking sats.

 

[Надя__ден]

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